❗Covid-19 — What you need to know now! 😷

Crucial reading/information:

Detailed Preparation Worksheet: Livelihood, home preparation, lifestyle changes, personal & community health — practical tips on how to navigate the crisis

  1. Email from a biotech investor about precaution and medication (below)
  2. Infectious disease expert insights (Joe Rogan show — my notes) (below)
  3. Coronavirus — Why You Must Act Now — one of the best articles out there about how serious it is and that a tsunami is about to hit us and why current numbers are not reflecting the real situation (22 mins)
  4. Coronavirus: Myth vs. Reality (slide deck) — see slide 6 for age-related mortality risk
  5. Resource on the best articles and links on Covid-19 Please visit this collection of documents for more highly relevant information (courtesy of Ryan Allis)
  6. Italian MD reporting from the frontline: (11 mins video)
  7. This crisis also offers opportunity: Coronavirus offers “a blank page for a new beginning”
  8. There are two online conferences that were launched as a response to the crisis:
    > March 16–18: COVID-19: The State & Future of Pandemics hosted by Singularity University (free)
    > April 14–16: ExO World Digital Conference ($297) — Turning crisis into opportunity: We can either huddle at home in fear or we can have a global conversation about transforming the world for a better future. We have gathered the leading thinkers of our time and will discuss the current global situation and how we transform it. Book your ticket through this link to support me.
  9. On the stock market: CNBC — Chamath Palihapitiya on stock selloff: I suspect we are nowhere near the lows
  10. Anecdotal reporting of the situation in NYC (via Tim Ferriss)

1. Email from a biotech investor:

Dear Friends,

  • China might have window-dressed a bit
  • But Italy has
  • Many old people
  • Many smokers
  • Bad healthcare system
  • Done less/too late measure to contain
  • especially little use of experimental drugs, while China has used everything possible without hesitation, see below
  • and maybe virus mutates
  • As simple as it sounds, social distancing is best. Do NOT interact with people over the next weeks if possible. Stay at home, self-quarantine. If you are meeting people, don’t shake hands. Keep distance. Act is if everybody around you has the flu.
  • If you have children, and at the same time parents in the same household, make sure the elderly are isolated, as they are most vulnerable. Don’t let your parents meet their grandchildren! Ideally complicate isolate and self-quarantine the elderly!
  • You know I am a fan of metformin, but metformin could slightly lower your immune system. Stop it for the time being
  • As said before, most important: SLEEP
  • Zinc
  • Vitamin C (please do overload, no risk of taking too much)
  • Astragalus
  • Fungi Perfecti, Stamets 7, Daily Immune Support
  • Super high dose of Vitamin C
  • Inhalable glutathione
  • You need a professional inhaler and then glutathione pills, which are usually for oral use, but don’t really work orally, but you can dissolve them and then inhale
  • a bronchodilator (like albuterol) — needs prescription
  • Those 2 medications also help if you have problems breathing and can’t get a hospital place right away. As shown by many studies, the shortage if hospital/ICU beds could be a massive driver for death rate
  • Have a portable oxygen concentrator at home
  • Chloroquine — originally a Malaria medication, check the brand name in your country, it is out of patent and hence available under various brands
  • Kaletra — original an HIV medication, check the brand name in your country, it is out of patent and hence available under various brands
  • Patients may require antibiotics in cases of bacterial pneumonia as well as COVID-19. Stock the most common antibiotics, I wouldn’t exclude a shortage
  • Stock any medication you need regularly! There might be shortages

2. Infectious disease expert insights

My highlights (of the first 45 mins) from a Joe Rogan interview with Michael Osterholm, an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He’s the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) and author of “Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs” for more info. Here’s the link to the full show.

  • it’s just beginning and will unfold for months. Think about Italy. Three weeks ago it was fine and it’s completely shut down.
  • you are infectious before you even get sick. Even highly infectious just need to breathe in
  • based on current data, this will be 10–15x worse than the worst seasonal flu in terms of fatalities with possible 100MM cases in the US and up to 480,000 deaths.
  • the primary risk factor is being old and having certain conditions (like obesity and smoking)incubation period/R0 is 4 days
  • masks are largely unhelpful
  • the primary of transmitting it on is breathing. Studies in Germany showed that when you get infected you have already incredibly high levels of the virus before showing any symptoms -> avoid public spaces
  • no vaccine anytime soon
  • children get infected with the virus but they don’t get sick
  • if we close schools, 38% of nurses in the US have kids, who is going to take care of their kids?
  • limiting contact as much as you can is the best thing we can do
  • we are not prepared at all. Even though we could be
  • US has critical drug shortages
  • sauna visit killing the virus is bullshit
  • unlikely it’s a biological weapon. Nature is much better at creating viruses.
  • could be 10x worse than a real bad seasonal flu year
  • it will hit primarily older populations and those with underlying health problems (e.g. obesity, high blood pressure)
  • it will stay around for months
  • about 0.1% of people who get seasonal flu die mostly older and younger people. In China, Corona mortality is 2–3% but we in the West have more higher risk people than China. Spanish Flu in 1918 was 3–3.2% mortality rate (in that case 18–25 years old were hardest hit)
  • this could be as high as 2% — meaning 480,000 deaths in the US
  • be as healthy as you can be. Keep in shape
  • if you are on medications, don’t miss them, e.g. high blood pressure medication
  • get enough sleep, eat a healthy diet
  • reduce your intake of alcohol, drink a lot of water
  • take vitamins
  • there’s no data that supports that vitamin drips might substantially boost your immune system
  • probiotics dito, there’s no data that supports it removes the bad bugs
  • hand sanitizers are unlikely to really protect because the data is low that not touching your face protects because it’s transmitted through the air
  • same with hand washing. People want to do something so we tell them to do something but it’s not really what the data shows: we are getting this through breathing air and that’s a hard thing to stop. Keep doing the handwashing but that won’t stop the transmission
  • surgical masks (doesn’t protect because it’s about the surgeon not dripping into the patient’s wounds not to protect the surgeon/wearer) — doesn’t protect. If you are sick they might protect others a little bit from you transmitting it
  • N95 masks: the tight-fitting one, they are very effective. But there’s a big shortage in the US because we don’t stockpile.
  • the risk overall is not low. We can’t tell people it’s all safe



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